Every pollster from here to midnight is trying to predict the presidential race. Depending on who you listen to, Kamala Harris is winning and Donald Trump is losing or the other way around. With two weeks to go before the election, the way to ready polls is not in the win column, but in the trend column AND who is doing the polling. In addition, polling in key electoral vote states is also an indicator of how things will turn out on election night. That is, all things square and even insomuch as there is vote integrity and ballot security. But those things are not square and even given election laws in states that hold the majority of electoral votes and traditionally trend for democrat presidential candidates.
A Rasmussen poll taken October 14-17 of 2,666 likely voters indicated less than three weeks until Election Day, Trump may be taking some voters away from Harris in the race for the White House. The former President Donald Trump held a two-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris. According to Rasmussen Reports, if the election were held today, 49% of Likely US Voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. Two percent (2%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and two percent (2%) are undecided. The previous survey taken October 13-16 of 2,108 likely voters indicated a dead heat with Harris and Trump tied at 48%These findings are nearly unchanged since last week, with two percent (2%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and two percent (2%) are undecided.
A Rasmussen and American Thinker October 9-13 found that 50 percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania would vote for Trump and 47 percent of likely voters would vote for Harris. Key states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Florida and Georgia are indicators. In another poll, which the leftist Washington Post says is most accurate, TIPP tracking poll of 1,212 likely voters conducted online from Friday, October 11 to Sunday, October 13 indicates Harris is leading nationwide 49% to Trump’s 46%. Key to this type of poll, it was conducted online, which may effect accuracy. Also, in all polls accuracy is affected by how the questions are asked and how the sampling is weighted democrat vs republican. Liberal polling organizations like those taken by the media weigh samples more heavily toward registered democrats.
Trending is important. If Trump is to be the winner, his campaign needs to show a positive trend upward in the next two weeks, culminating on election day. There are some good signs in places like Pennsylvania and Ohio, but there are 15 states that do not require voter identification to cast a vote for president. They are: ME, VT, MA, NY, PA, MD, NJ, IL, MN, NM, NV, CA, OR, WA, HA. These states comprise 207 of the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency and they traditionally vote for Democratic Party presidential candidates. This give Harris a distinctive advantage. 2 Chronicles 15 speaks of Israel turning to God when it was “vexed” with adversity. Verse 7 says, “But you, be strong and do not let your hands be weak, for your work shall be rewarded!” Time to get to work. Call on the Lord. Do what you can do.
Sources:
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2024/election2024
https://tippinsights.com/tipp-tracking-poll-day-1-harris-holds-narrow-3-point-lead-over-trump/
