Polling Analysis–Trending is important

Many of the polls have former Vice President Joe Biden beating President Donald Trump in a landslide. The Economist predicts Biden has a 91% chance of winning the electoral college and a 99% chance of winning the popular vote. Rasmussen indicated that Biden had a 12-point lead over Trump in its recent head to head poll taken September 30-October 6 of 2,500 likely voters. Rasmussen is the only polling entity that predicted the 2016 election correctly when all other polling sources were pointing to a runaway landslide for Democratic loser Hillary Clinton. This election, Rasmussen is saying that all is not yet lost for Trump, but that there are many obstacles to overcome for him to be reelected.

Rasmussen reports on October 8, “Last week, we wrote that Donald Trump needed to help himself at last week’s debate more than Joe Biden did, because Trump is trailing and Biden is leading. We did not think Trump did help himself, and the numbers we’ve seen since the debate have backed up that initial reaction. It also does not appear that the president and many top officials contracting coronavirus has made the president look better or improved his chances…a common question has been whether this episode or that episode would hurt his standing…But with just weeks to go until the election, asking whether something hurts Trump is the wrong question. Rather, the key question is whether something helps.”

Rasmussen continues: “At least some of the numbers we’re seeing for Biden now likely represent a sugar high for the challenger, which can happen sometimes when one candidate performs poorly or is on the wrong side of a bad story. Hillary Clinton’s national lead against Trump hit double digits in some polls following the revelation of the “Access Hollywood” recording in early October 2016, although Clinton’s aggregate lead over Trump in national polling as measured by RealClearPolitics hit only a high point of seven that October, and her share of the vote in the average never surpassed 49% in the fall (she ended up getting 48%). Biden, meanwhile, has not dipped under 49% in RealClearPolitics since early August, and he was approaching 52% Wednesday (October 7) evening.”

Suspend your disbelief. Even Rasmussen says Trump needs to make up ground. Trending is important. The Trump campaign needs to show a positive trend upward in the next three weeks, culminating on election day. Since October 5, Rasmussen Reports shows Trump’s daily approval has risen from 46% to 49%. This is a good sign. It must keep rising to over 50% for Trump to win. Remember that 10 million people already have voted and the Democrats have been pushing their get out the vote hard. 2 Chronicles 15 speaks of Israel turning to God when it was “vexed” with adversity. Verse 7 says, “But you, be strong and do not let your hands be weak, for your work shall be rewarded!” Time to get to work. Call on the Lord. Do what you can do.

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Bill Wilson

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